The worsening consequences of the climate crisis could fatally “derail” climate action, researchers have warned.

With global warming breaching 1.5°C – and Earth system tipping points, such as the widespread dieback of warm-water coral reefs, now being reached – the consequences of climate change are guaranteed to escalate.

The new report – by the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), the University of Exeter, University College London’s Climate Action Unit, and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) – says this could create a vicious cycle in which dealing with climate impacts gets in the way of action to tackle the underlying problem.

This could keep the world off a trajectory for emissions reductions that keeps temperatures below the 2°C target set in Paris in 2015.

The researchers say this “derailment risk” is dangerously overlooked.

Their work is the culmination of a two-year project that engaged hundreds of science and policy experts and officials around the world to consider how to “navigate the new climate reality”.

Comparing the world’s fight against climate change to sailors facing a deadly storm, lead author Laurie Laybourn, from SCRI and Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “Until now, the job has been to persuade the crew that the storm is coming, to change course, and to tackle the vested interests who don’t want to do this.

“We have taken some climate action – the bearing has changed, with huge progress made in clean technology – but now we are entering the figurative and literal ‘storm’ of 1.5°C overshoot.

“At this point, navigating becomes harder – our ability to act is pulled in different directions by worsening climate impacts and their chaotic consequences. These could distract us from rapid decarbonisation, keeping us on a trajectory to global disaster.

“So, we need a strategy to get focussed, stay focussed, and navigate to safety.”

Laybourn said we often assume our ability to deal with climate change will only increase, when in fact humanity could become “too distracted by climate chaos to focus fully on climate action”.

He added: “This situation – which we call derailment – is like sailors becoming overwhelmed by a storm and so losing their ability to navigate, or even stay afloat.”

Vicious cycle: Vox in Valencia

In explaining derailment risks, the report highlights the example of the 2024 floods in the Valencia region.

A year’s worth of rain fell in eight hours, leading to the deaths of more than 200 people and causing widespread damage, costing billions of euros.

Climate change supercharged the disaster, increasing both the risk of extreme rainfall and of flooding, due to persistent drying of the ground.

However, the populist Vox party – which opposes climate action – capitalised on public anger and low trust in politics and blamed the floods on “climate fanaticism”.

Vox falsely claimed that an obsession with protecting river ecosystems had come at the cost of protecting local people.

Polls recorded an increase in support for Vox, with many people already disillusioned and mistrusting of the government.

But Vox opposes policies to decarbonise and improve climate adaptation – so the researchers warn that their greater influence will make the people of Valencia less safe from such events in future.

Laybourn explained: “This form of politics slows down climate action, making future climate-driven disasters worse, and thereby creating fuel for more counterproductive populism.

“But there’s an alternative. We can encourage the opposite of derailment, exploiting ‘reinforcement opportunities’ for climate action, where climate consequences can encourage more action, which progressively tackles the underlying problem. But the means becoming more resilient to shocks.”

He gave the example of energy-efficient “passive house” buildings that survived the Los Angeles wildfires.

“That design both reduced carbon emissions and made the house more resilient to climate impacts,” he said.

“That approach needs to be writ large across society: more resilient to climate impacts today, while reducing emissions and so helping tackle the drivers of worse disasters tomorrow.”

Navigating the new reality

The report sets out five capabilities that will help us navigate in the “climate storm” of 1.5°C overshoot and avoid derailment – which are similar to the capabilities a ship’s crew needs to navigate a storm:

• Situational awareness. Climate risks have been persistently under-estimated, which is like having bad radar in a storm. Situational awareness can be improved by addressing blind spots that are common in risk assessments, developing early warning systems, and undertaking scenario exercises.
• Stories. On entering a storm, sailors need a new narrative that motivates action for the new, more difficult reality. Our climate stories should emphasise resilience under pressure and how to navigate extreme conditions without losing focus on tackling the causes and aiming for better futures.
• Resilience. A crew must strengthen the ship to minimise distracting disruptions. This is not happening enough for climate change. The world needs to move beyond incremental adaptation of infrastructure – such as flood barriers and temperature regulation – to the transformation of societal systems. For example, poverty alleviation improves social cohesion and general resilience to climate shocks, thereby reducing derailment risks.
• Speed. We must rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions while also adapting to new climate realities. One without the other increases the chance of derailment. There is huge potential for adaptation aligning with decarbonisation – for example via nature restoration.
• Governance. Decision-making systems must be modified to ensure a beneficial relationship between adaptation and accelerated decarbonisation. Politicians will need to be more candid with populations about the reality of climate change.

Dr James Dyke, Assistant Director of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said: “Derailment risks will only grow as the world heads beyond 1.5°C warming.

“The prevailing assumption is that the world has closed off pathways above 3°C warming – but in fact we could be derailed by vicious cycles in societies and nature. Catastrophic environmental change is still very much on the table. “ 

“This can be prevented if derailment risks are tackled, by greatly accelerating the phase out of fossil fuels, at the same time as increasing efforts to adapt to the climate change that is coming.”

The researchers say everyone has a role to play in tackling derailment because it results from how societies are run at all levels.

They have developed a toolkit to help people identify derailment, and how to act on it. Visit: www.scri.org.uk/derailment.