Bukayo Saka, Arsenal, £10.3m – Newcastle (h)
Saka has not delivered a return since week 30 but since then, in five games, he has an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 3.1.
In comparison, team-mate Leandro Trossard has an xGI of 2.9 but has managed five goal involvements in the same period.
So Saka is playing well and has been unlucky. Back him to produce in this key game with Arsenal’s second-place spot at risk if they lose.
Cole Palmer (captain), Chelsea, £10.5m – Manchester United (h)
This is the game in which Palmer scored a hat-trick last season and he’s again in prime position to produce in a key match for Chelsea’s Champions League qualification hopes.
United have been awful this season and also have most of their attention on Wednesday’s Europa League final.
Like Saka, Palmer is another player underperforming his xGI with just four returns from an xGI of 8.2 since week 22.
Bryan Mbeumo, Brentford, £8.3m – Fulham (h)
Mbeumo’s ownership, post-week 36, was 46.4%. FPL managers have invested heavily in the Cameroon forward for the run-in and he hasn’t fully lived up to expectations, with just an assist in each of his past two games.
But that could change a Fulham side who need to win in their bid to finish eighth and secure a possible European spot.
It could be an open game and that will suit Brentford and Mbeumo.
Jarrod Bowen, West Ham, £7.7m – Nottingham Forest (h)
With four goals and two assists in his past six games, Bowen is finishing the season with a bang – unlike Forest, who don’t have a clean sheet in six matches.
The onus is on Forest to be on the front foot to get three points in their bid for Champions League football, which means Bowen should get his chance on the break.
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