Scottish Premiership: What do statistics say about finishes after the split?

Only three positions in the top six can realistically change hands.

Celtic only need a draw from Saturday’s trip to face Dundee United to retain the league title, so no wonder Opta rates the chances of Brendan Rodgers’ side blowing their 15-point lead at 0%.

Similarly, Rangers are all but guaranteed to finish second with their own 13-point cushion over Hibernian.

Meanwhile, despite having three of their five remaining matches in Paisley, St Mirren are 97.4% certain to remain sixth, given they are nine points behind both Dundee United and Aberdeen.

That means it is a three-way battle between Hibs, United and the Dons for third and the European qualification spots.

There are more detailed analyses of which European spots are up for grabs, but let us here consider who are favourites to finish third.

Hibs start with a three-point lead over the other two and, after a run of one defeat – against Celtic in the Scottish Cup – in 20 outings, they are rated at 80% to stay there.

United go into the final stretch on the back of three consecutive wins and also have three out of five games at home compared to their rivals’ three away days.

However, one of those at Tannadice is against Celtic, although that is maybe balanced out by another being against St Mirren.

Aberdeen are also on a roll, Saturday’s Scottish Cup semi-final win over Heart of Midlothian making it seven games unbeaten.

However, Jimmy Thelin’s side have so far taken six fewer points from other teams in the top six than their two rivals for third.

Not only that, but one of their two remaining home games is against a Celtic side who have beaten them in their latest three meetings this season.

That makes a win in Saturday’s visit by Hibs even more vital. Little wonder that Opta only gives Aberdeen a 36.1% chance of improving on fifth.